Abstract
This paper asks what next if the two core pillars of European security wither away. For seven decades, the transatlantic alliance ensured external and internal security on the continent. The ever expanding and deepening European economic and political integration enhanced prosperity and ensured stability. Today, the US government seems increasingly reluctant to sustain its alliance system, and populism and nationalism undermine the European integration project. Thus, I leverage insights from declassified governmental documents to investigate likely alternative European arrangements. I go back to the last known pertinent historical junction and trace the dilemmas policymakers faced. I argue that the end of the Cold War was the last moment at which the current architecture was doubted. Three decades ago, British Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher distrusted the American pledge to remain engaged in Europe. She also resented European integration as the means to tie down the reunifying German Gulliver. In a competitive international environment, Thatcher considered returning the continent to a system of balancing alliances. Overall, she sought to keep Russia engaged in European affairs as a means to counterbalance the Germans. She abandoned her plans only when the Americans restated their intentions, and when the French and the Germans pushed integration ahead despite British protestation. What might have changed in the interlude? First, the competitive nature of European politics of lore might have given way to a more congenial approach. And yet, the observable behavior of European governments does not suggest such transformation. Second, external threats – particularly, from a rising China and revisionist Russia – might pose sufficient of a challenge for Europeans to abandon their internal disputes. However, little suggests concerted European action vis-à-vis Beijing or Moscow. In conclusion, I argue that if the two pillars wither away, a system of continental shifting alliances appears to be the most probable replacement.
Panel: The Past, Present and Future of Transatlantic Security
Cite this presentation
@inproceedings{eiss-2019-the-future-of-european-security-architecture-back-to-lady-thatcher-and-her-enten,
author = {Liviu Horovitz},
title = {The Future of European Security Architecture: Back to Lady Thatcher and her Ententes},
booktitle = {European Security Studies Conference 2019},
year = {2019},
url = {https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2019-the-future-of-european-security-architecture-back-to-lady-thatcher-and-her-enten.html}
}