Programme · Survey Results

Global Risks to the EU

A collaborative large-scale survey to quantify expert perceptions of conflict-related threats to European Union interests.

About the study

The first continent-wide dataset on European expert risk perceptions

“Launched in 2025 by the Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies (RSCAS) at the European University Institute (EUI), in collaboration with the European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS), the Trans European Policy Studies Association (TEPSA), and the European Initiative for Security Studies (EISS), ‘Global Risks to the EU’ constitutes the first continent-wide dataset on global risk perceptions among European experts. About 400 respondents rank the likelihood and expected impact of 30 predefined risks affecting EU coherence, unity, security, and prosperity. By operationalising risk as a measurable construct and applying systematic analysis to expert perceptions, the project offers a transparent, comparative, and policy-relevant tool for understanding the threat landscape facing the Union.”

Key findings

Respondents scored each risk on both how likely it is and how severely it would affect the Union. The results are mapped geographically and ranked by expected impact. An interactive version, the methodology, and the full annual report are published by the European Governance and Politics Programme at the EUI.

Global Risks to the EU — overview chart.
Global Risks to the EU — detailed risk breakdown.
Global Risks to the EU — ranked risk impact.
Explore the results

Full results and annual report

The project is directed by Veronica Anghel and Erik Jones within the European Governance and Politics Programme at the European University Institute, and run with the EU Institute for Security Studies, the Trans European Policy Studies Association, and EISS. The interactive map, the methodology, and the annual report are maintained on the programme's own site.

Open the project at the EUI →