Abstract
Cruise missiles and boost gliders that can travel faster than five times the speed of sound along an unpredictable trajectory have been portrayed in the public discourse as the game changer that will transform the global security environment and disrupt strategic stability. But then physics gets in the way and makes them appear less fast and agile than advertised. Their main advantages – speed, maneuverability, and accuracy – can be inhibited by limitations of flying hypersonic in the atmosphere. As military effectiveness and technical reliability of these weapons is uncertain, the magnitude of their disruptive effect remains a known unknown. The United States, Russia, and China’s heavy investments in hypersonic offensive capabilities manifest their great power rivalry and status seeking behaviour. Although it looks like China is getting FOBSsessed about evading American missile defences and Russia keeps polishing its Avangard glider, what we observe is a competition to become the first to achieve a technological edge, a political tool of great powers for demonstrating technological prowess and prestige. This is far from stating that hypervelocity weapons are not dangerous. Technological competing for pride can spiral into arms race, increase the risk of misperceptions, and contribute to nuclear build ups. Instead of musing about revolutionary technology and overestimating the capabilities of hypersonic weapons, it is important to look beyond the hype (and perhaps stop labelling a standard MARV-ed ballistic missile hypersonic). The hype cycle concept developed by the sociology of technology adoption can help avoid exaggerating short-term expectations and form a better understanding of the time and resources required for hypersonic and other emerging and disruptive technologies to mature. In the short to mid terms, the most tangible effect of hypersonic weapons will likely be the need to improve sensors on existing layered defence systems and make them more integrated and continent-wide.
Panel: Military Technology
Cite this presentation
@inproceedings{eiss-2022-un-hyping-hypersonic-weapons,
author = {Dominika Kunertova},
title = {Un-Hyping Hypersonic Weapons},
booktitle = {European Security Studies Conference 2022},
year = {2022},
url = {https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-un-hyping-hypersonic-weapons.html}
}