Abstract
When it comes to selecting a new technology to mature into a battle-winning weapon, there is rarely ever such a thing as a sure bet. Despite this truism, some novel technologies can trigger intense initial enthusiasm (or ‘hype’), generating expectations among defense planners and military experts that far exceed their realistically known attributes. As every decision to invest in one technology over another is pregnant with the potential opportunity cost that a battle- 1 winning technology was not selected, hype about certain technologies may prove harmful. Yet hype may also work to funnel research money towards nascent technologies at a critical stage in their development life-cycle. Through comparing two ‘long-fuse’ technologies that have triggered considerable enthusiasm in the U.S. defense community – artificial intelligence and high-energy lasers – this paper seeks to better understand the role hype plays in the development trajectory of key military technologies.
Panel: Military Innovation in the Long Peace
Cite this presentation
@inproceedings{eiss-2019-modelling-the-role-of-hype-in-the-development-trajectory-of-long-fuse-defense-te,
author = {Ash Rossiter},
title = {Modelling the Role of 'Hype' in the Development Trajectory of 'Long-Fuse' Defense Technologies},
booktitle = {European Security Studies Conference 2019},
year = {2019},
url = {https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2019-modelling-the-role-of-hype-in-the-development-trajectory-of-long-fuse-defense-te.html}
}