Abstract
This paper applies a geopolitisation lens to the Pristina–Belgrade Dialogue, examining how geopolitics have affected the normalisation of the dialogue and to what extent the deterioration of the geopolitical situation in the world opens the space for an alteration in related measures within the broader transformation of the EU enlargement process. Initially framed as a technocratic and depoliticised process aimed at functional normalisation and rule-based convergence, the dialogue has increasingly been reframed as a strategic instrument in the EU’s response to contemporary security challenges. The paper argues that this transformation is driven by the re-emergence of hard geopolitics in Europe, particularly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which has recast the Western Balkans as a zone of strategic vulnerability, as well as the latest shift in US foreign policy and security priorities and its subsequent rift with its traditional allies, including the EU. As a result, EU conditionality in the dialogue has evolved from a primarily normative mechanism into a tool of geopolitical stabilisation, prioritising containment of external influence, regional security, and alignment over legal clarity and democratic consolidation. The paper highlights the importance for the Union to balance between short-term stability and entrenching status ambiguity, undermining the EU’s normative credibility. The paper uses data collected from in-depth interviews from officials in Kosovo, Serbia and EU institutions inside the framework of the GEO-POWER-EU project.
Panel: Geopolitical Power Europe: A Reality Check in Western Balkans and Eastern Neighbourhood