Papers on military interventions presented at EISS conferences and workshops, newest first. 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z https://eiss-europa.com/feeds/themes/military-interventions.xml European Initiative for Security Studies https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2026-from-rebels-to-state-s-justice-post-conflict-justice-choices-in-2026-syria 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z Marie Robin

How do rebels deliver justice when they reach power? This contribution examines post-conflict justice choices in Syria following the political transition of December 2024, focusing on how the new leadership under Ahmad al-Sharaa needs to address widespread human rights violations committed during the al-Assad era. These violations include crimes perpetrated both by the former regime (chemical weapons use, torture in detention centers, disappearances) and by non-state armed actors, notably the Islamic State (genocide of Yazidi community, terrorist violence) as well as other militias like Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (Ahmad al-Sharaa’s group). Drawing on security studies and transitional justice literature, the paper analyzes the emerging Syrian justice architecture and explores how choices of retributive or restorative justice affect stabilization and violence prevention in post-conflict Syria, i.e., how justice choices impact “security.” The analysis examines retributive justice initiatives, including the use of universal jurisdiction by courts in Germany and the United States, alongside the reactivation of Syrian national courts to prosecute serious crimes committed by the former regime and the Islamic State. It assesses how the al-Sharaa’s regime frames these retributive choices within a rather standard conception of security governance, focused on two ends: bringing stabilization (by preventing further violence), and consolidating institutions (to deter further violence). The paper contrasts these choices with restorative justice mechanisms also largely introduced by the new authorities, such as the National Commission for Missing Persons and the National Commission for Transitional Justice. These restorative approaches focus on reconciliation; According to the al-Sharaa’s government, they aim to rebuild trust between civilians and institutions, rather advancing a “human” understanding of security. Will al-Sharaa prosecute crimes by militias (including those of HTS)? Which and whose crimes will be prosecuted?

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2026-gendering-non-traditional-security-a-comparative-analysis-of-sexual-violence-rec 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z Teodora Stoicescu

This paper will focus on the gender-based violence during armed conflicts as a non-traditional security challenge that is affecting the post-conflict development, stability and any peacebuilding effort. The analysis will be situated within feminist studies and will focus on how post-conflict approaches towards policies, reconciliation and reparations need to address sexual violence and the importance of recognising it as a crime that will deeply impact society. Through a comparative case study of Colombia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, the main focus will be on how the reconciliation frameworks have been implemented and whether the gender layer has also been taken into account while the states have begun their healing process. In the case of Bosnia-Herzegovina, even though the ICTY has been a role model in the international jurisprudence scene and has defined for the first time since the World War 2 trials the term "rape" as a war crime, the post-conflict resolutions and reconciliation were proven to be too inconsistent in the face of the true destruction the Bosnian War has brought, while also having trouble helping with their survivors. In the case of Colombia, the non-traditional approach towards gender-based violence during the war has proven to be right, and the transitional justice was incorporated in the peace-building efforts and, later on, the international jurisprudence. The paper will also focus on the differences between the conflicts. Still, it will highlight the most important factors in which gender-based violence has succeeded: underdevelopment, inequality, patriarchy, but also the issue of land, resources and ethnic conflicts. Moreover, the importance of gender-based frameworks is proven to be a significant non-traditional security challenge, but when addressed and implemented correctly, it can bring a change in the reconciliation process and also build a more stable and durable post-conflict stability, while still caring for its citizens and survivors.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2026-interpreting-counterterrorism-in-african-conflict-management 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z Saurav Narain Silvia D'Amato

Scholarly attention to the convergence between international conflict management and counterterrorism has expanded significantly, though with an implicit interpretation of the ‘use of force’ logic, and an emphasis on UN peacekeeping’s downsizing of protection and human rights norms in engagement with the concept (Moe, 2021; Geis and Moe, 2023). Furthermore, terrorism-related violence is on an unprecedented rise in Africa, with several armed conflicts being embroiled with jihadist actors. African states over the last decade have increasingly pursued counterterrorism through informal coalitional arrangements and bilateral interventions, characterised by expansive force mandates and minimal accountability mechanisms. This paper advances a structured conceptual framework for understanding counterterrorism in international conflict management by identifying four analytical tensions: (1) militarisation and ‘use of force’; (2) organisational density and overlap in coalitions; (3) organisational capacity for prevention-focused mandates; (4) localised meaning-making and contested legitimacy. Building on the ADHOCISM dataset (Maglia, Karlsrud & Reykers 2025), we specifically analyse how these tensions manifest across UN-mandated integrated operations, UN-authorised autonomous interventions, and non-UN operations. The goal is to show and explain the critical shift in African conflict governance, characterised by the declining relevance of UN-centric peacekeeping frameworks and a parallel emergence of militarised ad hoc coalitions with differing levels of protection standards.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2026-mapping-plural-visions-of-peace-the-peace-cube-as-an-analytical-framework 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z Yijun Xu Dr Gijsbert Van Iterson Scholten

Recent debates in peacebuilding have moved beyond the liberal peace paradigm to emphasize plural, locally grounded understandings of peace. However, despite this “local turn,” the field still lacks systematic tools for conceptualizing and comparing diverse visions of peace across actors and contexts. This article addresses this gap by proposing a new conceptual framework - the peace cube - as an analytical tool to visualize and compare different visions of peace across actors and contexts. Integrating insights from existing typologies that distinguish between levels, domains, and values of peace, the peace cube offers a multidimensional structure that captures the complexity and relational nature of peace visions. The article demonstrates the utility of this model through the case of Colombia, where the Duque government, civil society groups, and feminist actors articulate distinct yet interrelated understandings of peace. By mapping these visions within a shared conceptual space, the peace cube highlights tensions, overlaps, and potential areas of dialogue between competing perspectives. Ultimately, this approach contributes to a more systematic and plural understanding of peace, offering a practical tool for bridging conceptual divides in peacebuilding theory and practice.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2026-peace-as-stalemate-bosnia-and-herzegovina-forever-missions-and-the-strategic-log 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z Dr SENADA ŠELO ŠABIĆ

More than three decades after the Dayton Peace Agreement, Bosnia and Herzegovina remains subject to a continuous international military presence and extensive external governance, yet without achieving political stability or institutional consolidation. This paper examines Bosnia as a paradigmatic case of forever missions and frozen peace: interventions that successfully prevent renewed violence while entrenching political stalemate. Building on theories of prolonged military intervention, conflict management, and institutional lock-in, the paper argues that the Dayton framework transformed peacekeeping from a temporary stabilisation mechanism into a permanent substitute for political settlement. While empirically centred on Bosnia and Herzegovina, the analysis situates the case within a broader universe of long-term interventions – including Kosovo, Cyprus, and Lebanon – where external military presence sustains stability without resolving underlying political conflict. The paper shows how Dayton institutionalised ethnic vetoes, fragmented authority, and international oversight, producing a condition of managed instability in which peace persists but sovereignty and democratic accountability remain suspended. International military presence, while effective in preventing violence, has thus become structurally necessary precisely because political settlement remains incomplete. Addressing a central but underexplored question in the literature – how long-standing interventions might move beyond stalemate without triggering renewed conflict – the paper identifies the strategic trade-offs that transform peacekeeping into conflict management. It concludes by reflecting on what political recalibration would be required to shift from frozen peace toward genuine settlement, and what the Bosnian case reveals about the limits of military intervention as a tool of political transformation.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2026-socialized-to-cooperate-foreign-military-training-and-coordination-in-un-peaceke 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z 2026-06-11T12:00:00Z Ilker Kalin Prof. Carla Martinez Machain

United Nations peacekeeping operations (PKOs) are inherently multinational and rely on coordination among national contingents with diverse military cultures, doctrines, and rules of engagement. While existing research shows that mission composition and prior in-mission experience shape peacekeeping effectiveness, we know far less about whether coordination begins before deployment. This paper argues that foreign military training functions as a pre-deployment socialization mechanism that fosters cooperation in multinational peacekeeping settings. Drawing on literature on military socialization and coalition learning, we hypothesize that officers who receive foreign military training—particularly in the United States—develop greater trust in multinational command structures and increased willingness to cooperate with foreign counterparts. We test this argument using a mixed-methods design. First, we field an original vignette experiment with 196 Turkish military officers to examine whether U.S.-trained officers are more willing to comply with operational requests from foreign commanders. Second, we complement the experimental evidence with an observational analysis of UN peacekeeping missions from 1990 to 2016, assessing whether missions with higher proportions of U.S.-trained personnel are more effective in reducing battle-related violence. Our findings suggest that foreign military training is associated with greater openness to international cooperation at the individual level and improved coordination at the mission level. These results contribute to debates on peacekeeping effectiveness by highlighting the micro-level social foundations of coalition cohesion and have policy implications for the design of training and exchange programs.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2025-from-revolt-to-rule-insurgency-as-proto-state-formation 2025-06-26T12:00:00Z 2025-06-26T12:00:00Z Marnix Provoost

State formation is a continuous process, marked by the centralisation and monopolisation of power to establish authority over a population within a defined territory. This paper argues that insurgency is a centrifugal force challenging this centralisation. However, insurgents are not merely destructive but, driven by an idea of an alternative political order, are establishing a new form of formal or informal governance, though at the expense of the established state’s authority and monopolies on using force, collecting taxes, and enacting laws. In its nature, an insurgency is a complex and dynamic phenomenon, itself analogous to state formation, similar in its evolution through the establishment of political authority by monopolising the use of force and generating revenue. Thus, the state and insurgents compete on three key axes of monopolisation: on legislation, on the use of force, and on taxation, each forming a critical pillar of governance and authority. These features distinguish the inherent use of force in insurgency from violence associated with mutiny, rebellion, criminals and terrorist organisations. This paper addresses theoretical gaps between insurgency and state formation by using the latter as a framework to analyse the former. Using complexity theory, it presents a model illustrating how distinct non-state groups and social structures may evolve from coexistence through cooperation to convergence into a proto-state, influenced by specific internal and external contextual factors that may contribute to insurgent success or failure. It posits that successful insurgencies often are a symbiosis of non-state groups or social structures possessing political-administrative, financial-economic, and force-exerting capabilities, enabling the formation of a proto-state. An insurgency’s nature lies in this process of integration, while its character is shaped by contextual factors. Additionally, the paper argues that securing and re-allocating revenue is a critical aspect in establishing insurgent governance and legitimacy, but often neglected the traditional political-military focus.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2025-helping-your-friends-in-need-military-interventions-and-the-reliability-of-defen 2025-06-26T12:00:00Z 2025-06-26T12:00:00Z Margit Bussmann Maximilian Krebs

Whether a state intervenes militarily in international crises and civil wars depends on the type of relations the two states maintain. Formal alliance and defense cooperation agreements are a costly signal of assistance but not in every case can a country count on its friends. The reliability of cooperation agreements is especially important for smaller states that are dependent on support from a powerful ally. However, many alliances are not honored. Military interventions by former colonial powers need to be reassessed in light of alliance reliability and post-colonial political and economic ties. Contradictory expectations emerge if the protective power maintain close ties to both belligerents, which is especially the case for major powers that pursue broader spheres of interest. This paper will systematically investigate the patterns of French military interventions in Africa and ask why it intervened in some former colonies but not in others. In the past, France often responded to requests for military support when asked by a protégé, while at other times, it remained inactive despite an existing defense cooperation agreement. There is variation of French interventions across countries but also for individual countries over time, such as in Chad where France intervened frequently but not in all critical situations. Relying on data from the Thorette report on French military operations abroad and the International Military Intervention dataset, we will assess the relative importance of defense cooperation agreements. Accounting for various opportunities that arise in the potential target state, such as military coups, rebellions, and international militarized disputes, we will investigate under what conditions the French government decided to send military support. A better understanding of whether France has been a reliable alliance partner or intervened selectively depending on its own geostrategic and economic interests will help explaining why it lost ground in Africa.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2025-negotiation-of-front-ends-and-back-ends-in-nato-military-advisory-missions 2025-06-26T12:00:00Z 2025-06-26T12:00:00Z Anders Klitmøller Anne Obling

In this paper, we explore the development of Western military missions, examining the shift from ‘winding down large-scale boots-on-the-ground multinational missions’ to a lighter military footprint, characterised by more distant security force assistance (SFA). Specifically, we focus on advisory and capacity-building activities in Iraq, concentrating on the day-to-day work conducted in NATO Mission Iraq (NMI). Drawing on a field study that includes interviews with mission participants, documents, and observational data, we investigate the activities of NATO personnel in NMI, illustrating how a diverse range of individuals collaborate on complex tasks within a limited timeframe, presenting various organisational and strategic challenges. Using Anselm Strauss’s negotiated order perspective, we analyse how the mission's nature entails ongoing negotiations centred around mission objectives and end state (including purpose complexity and host nation development), mission progress and success measurement (including assessing ‘what’ and determining for ‘whom’), as well as broader professional role competencies (such as military skills, subject-matter expertise, and English language proficiency). This paper contributes to current literature on military missions and civil-military relations by addressing the structural and contextual conditions that influence negotiations among participants in the NATO workforce. It represents an endeavour to comprehend the challenges faced by successful military advisory missions, considering NATO’s unique character and the limits of military expertise.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2025-the-resistance-operating-concept-s-deterrent-to-impress-distinct-causal-theories 2025-06-26T12:00:00Z 2025-06-26T12:00:00Z Martijn Rouvroije

The Resistance Operating Concept (ROC) brings Second World War and Cold War stay-behind resistance operations back into consideration for strategic and operational planners. The ROC describes national stay-behind civilian resistance organization during partial or total occupation by a belligerent actor. Current events in Eastern Europe have triggered military interest in preparing for such stay-behind armed resistance. However, the conceptual underpinning for this renewed embracement of resistance operations lacks in both depth and width. First, the ROC assumes a linear progression from planning and preparation through the execution of resistance activities over the course of a belligerent military invasion. Such a singular linear course of action falsely implies a one-sided pathway to success. This does not take the geographical space nor the severity of suppression of the population in the occupied territories, i.e. the occupation environment, into account. Moreover, such an approach conveys an impression that stay-behind resistance activities could achieve success in isolation of other elements of national resistance (through means other than guerrilla-like stay-behind units). Hence, this paper delves into distinct phases defined as: preparation for resistance, resistance to invasion, resistance to occupation, and support to liberation, each with a specific (potential) contribution to successful resistance. It does so by employing the concept of causal theory of threat to possible occupation environments and then by applying the concept of causal theory of success to stay-behind resistance’s phases. Military planners could achieve a more precise understanding of stay-behind operations vis-à-vis conventional military operations through such an approach. Such an understanding of resistance’s causal pathway to success could also aid in garnering the necessary popular, and military, support that stay-behind resistance organizations require in order to present a credible deterrent force during its preparation phase and a reliable force able to resist the potential belligerent when push comes to shove.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2025-the-transparent-battlefield-and-its-implications-for-western-movement-and-maneuv 2025-06-26T12:00:00Z 2025-06-26T12:00:00Z Friso Stevens

Ever since the Gulf War, the Western way of war has been firmly anchored in network-centric combined arms operations and executing them with a Clausewitzian concentration of forces to disarm the enemy. For this dislocating attack to effect psychological shock and operational and tactical surprise, speed and agility in movement are essential. The undiminished belief in unrivaled AirLand supremacy in Western defense establishment circles notwithstanding, the Ukraine War suggests significant impediments to maneuver warfare, with Luttwak going as far as declaring it impossible. The key obstacle to breaking through is what has come to be called the “transparency of the battlefield.” Because the enemy can see, track, and lock on to a (moving) ground target in real-time, amassing a large enough force to overwhelm him––which takes time, space, and organization that can be detected––has proven challenging. With geospatial data from satellites, advanced radar systems, and precision surveillance unmanned aerial vehicles, a stalemate has ensued where a lot of the friction and attrition of one’s own fighting capacity occurs without even beginning to approach the frontline. One can think of first-person view loitering munitions and long-range precision fire in shoot-and-scoot counter-battery duels. This article answers three questions. First, how have technological innovations making the battlefield “transparent” impacted Western movement and maneuver warfighting? Second, has the defensive regained dominance in the tactical offense/defense balance? Third, if this is the case, what implications does this have for the European force structure (and procurement) and warfighting doctrine – should Europe move to attrition warfare premised on the strategic defensive?

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2024-contesting-zeitenwende-political-contestation-and-partisan-entrapment 2024-06-27T12:00:00Z 2024-06-27T12:00:00Z Marius Ghincea

The rise of political polarization and partisan contestation over foreign and security policy has challenged traditional notions of bipartisanship and cross-party consensus in democratic countries. While partisan contestation seems to be prevalent, there are instances where cross-party consensus emerges. This paper theorizes a novel causal mechanism of partisan entrapment through which cross-party consensus can emerge in parliamentary democracies. The paper tests this novel mechanism by examining the partisan contestation over Germany’s military aid to Ukraine in the wake of the 2022 Russian invasion. This paper contributes to the growing literature on the party-political contestation of foreign and security policy and the scholarship on foreign policy consensus.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2024-military-intervention-in-foreign-policy-making-principal-agent-analysis-of-us-tr 2024-06-27T12:00:00Z 2024-06-27T12:00:00Z Juhong Park

After the Vietnam War, the United States attempted to reduce its troop levels, which led to a deterioration of the South Korea-US alliance. However, little attention has been paid to the Carter administration's ultimately unsuccessful attempt at withdrawal. This paper examines why civil-military preferences clashed and how this led to the failure of President Carter's complete withdrawal of US ground forces from Korea. Previous studies suggesting that US foreign policy patterns and strategic interests determined the withdrawal of US forces stationed abroad have not provided a coherent account of the domestic determinants of withdrawal failure, in particular the intervention of military elites. An alternative but essential factor to consider is civil-military relations. Even in mature democracies such as the United States, the foreign and national security policy preferences of civilian leaders and military elites can differ significantly. In such cases, military elites have resisted presidential foreign policy leadership through various political tactics and alliances with Congress. This paper develops a dual principal-agent model and causal process tracing to trace the trajectory of strategic interactions between the president, Congress, and military elites. In doing so, this paper demonstrates how US military elites can undermine presidential supremacy over US foreign policy.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2024-the-utility-of-foreign-volunteers-in-ukraine 2024-06-27T12:00:00Z 2024-06-27T12:00:00Z

The Russian full-scale invasion of Ukraine supposedly marks the return of the paradigmatic conventional high-intensity warfare, thus calling into question the past two decades of irregular conflict. Upon closer inspection, however, the war in Ukraine also exhibits several continuities, including the fact that non-citizens are fighting on behalf of both conflict parties. This paper examines the role of such volunteers in the Ukrainian war effort. Based on a review of the existing literature, our study argues that there is a need for a distinction between regular and irregular foreign volunteers. The paper then proposes a novel typology of such volunteers, based on their host’s legal status as well as their organizational capacity. Through a number of case studies including the International Legion, Chechen volunteer battalions as well as the Russian Volunteer Corps, and by comparing them to previous conflicts, the paper examines the utility of foreign volunteers for Ukraine. Its findings indicate that the Ukrainian experience largely confirms historical trends: Foreign volunteers are primarily useful for strategic messaging and garnering international attention. Meanwhile, their impact at the operational and tactical level is limited, with irregular volunteers having a higher probability than regular ones to affect battlefield outcomes. On the other hand, the Ukrainian case also shows some nuances with regard to the International Legion neither fitting the irregular nor regular volunteer category neatly as well as the attainment of deniability by using Russian volunteer groups carrying out cross-border raids.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2024-when-does-vladimir-putin-send-troops-to-fight-abroad 2024-06-27T12:00:00Z 2024-06-27T12:00:00Z Simon Saradzhyan

This paper explores what drove Vladimir Putin’s decisions to send troops on combat missions to foreign countries since his ascent to the Russian presidency on the last day of 1999. The author will first infer hypothetical drivers of Putin’s decisions to send troops to fight abroad from the academic literature on the subject. He will then explore whether any of the inferred drivers have been present in instances when, as the evidence that will be presented in this paper demonstrates, Putin has deliberated whether to order such an intervention. The author will examine a total of nine such instances, including six in which the Russian leader decided to send troops to fight abroad, and three in which he chose not to. This examination will aim to reveal what confluence of conditions has been both necessary and sufficient for the Kremlin autocrat to order a military intervention in a foreign country. Ascertaining this confluence would constitute a modest contribution to the body of academic knowledge about the use of force by post-Soviet Russia against other countries, in the author’s view. The paper’s findings may also be of practical use for policymakers whose job it is, to paraphrase Winston Churchill’s 1939 adage, to unwrap the riddle in a mystery inside an enigma in order to forecast to you forceful actions of Russia against other countries.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2023-bringing-the-troops-back-home-a-strategy-adaptation-under-adverse-conditions 2023-06-22T12:00:00Z 2023-06-22T12:00:00Z Matus Halas

One of the crucial questions of the study of military interventions is when and under what conditions tend the leadership change its mind and end the foreign military operation. The recent track record is not exactly encouraging. The French-led operation Barkhane ended with little success after eight years and the same applies for twenty years of the Western military involvement in Afghanistan. There are many other examples in which governments and its leaders failed to adapt their strategies despite many years of military engagement with a lack of results. Arguably the least likely case of strategy adaptation is when the same leader makes a complete U-turn and decides to withdraw troops shortly after the initial deployment. Identifying key factors contributing to strategy adaptation in such cases might offer important insights into conditions under which military interventions are more likely to end. The U.S. Marines pull-out from Lebanon in 1984 under the Reagan administration represents a perfect case for such an analysis. An archival research of declassified documents allows us to track down key frictions and enablers at the individual, domestic, and international level, which jointly led to a withdrawal decision. The findings might then also tell us important things about the ongoing war in Ukraine and chances that the Russian government will change its course over time.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2023-the-russian-invasion-and-the-changing-character-of-proxy-war-toward-a-comprehens 2023-06-22T12:00:00Z 2023-06-22T12:00:00Z Michel Wyss

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 has triggered a contentious debate among policymakers and scholars about whether the external support provided to the Ukrainian armed forces amounts to a proxy war between Russia and the West. Instead of engaging in tedious arguments about whether or not the armed conflict in Ukraine can or should be classified as an instance of proxy war (“proxy war as an event”), this paper examines to which extent “proxy war as an idea” adds analytical value to our understanding of the ongoing Russian aggression and, specifically, external support by Ukraine’s Western backers. To that end, it offers a conceptual reflection on how the notion of proxy war has evolved over the past decades. It then presents a novel framework by adopting a level of analysis approach, which conceptualizes proxy wars as a *logic*, a *relationship*, and a *process* – thus enabling a comprehensive understanding that builds upon previous, at times competing, perspectives. Applying this framework to the war in Ukraine, the paper’s findings indicate that a proxy war framework can help illuminate some of the most pressing dynamics of the conflict including the interplay of interest and risks as well as the interactions between Ukraine, its external backers, and Russia. Conversely, the case study also finds a need to reconsider several generally accepted characteristics such as actor types and actor pairings, the notion of indirectness, and the role of airpower in proxy warfare.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2023-who-supports-policy-interventions-to-terminate-civil-wars-survey-evidence-from-t 2023-06-22T12:00:00Z 2023-06-22T12:00:00Z Martijn Vlaskamp

Presented at EISS 2023. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-carpe-diem-when-foreign-sponsors-intervene-directly-in-civil-war 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Giuseppe Spatafora

The logic of proxy war suggests that states may delegate fighting to civil war parties when they want to avoid direct confrontation with their rivals. Yet, from Vietnam and Afghanistan during the Cold War to the contemporary cases of Libya, Ukraine and Syria, foreign states may end up intervening directly in support of their beneficiaries, deploying advisors, special forces, and even ground troops. Despite the countless number of studies on the use of force, including external intervention in civil war, we lack an understanding of why, and when, foreign sponsors would decide to directly intervene in a civil war by sending combat forces and not limit themselves to indirect support such as weapons and training. What drives the escalation of foreign support to direct intervention? This paper develops a logic of support escalation combining poor conflict evolution, foreign leaders' commitment, and the need for quick reversal of battlefield outcomes. Because there are several forms of escalation, sponsors will only provide direct support when (1) the costs of proxy war are about to rise significantly and (2) the proxy's forces lack combat effectiveness to obtain meaningful battlefield success. To compensate for the proxy's losses in a short time, foreign states may end up escalating the extent of their commitment, thereby abandoning the initial logic of limited war. The paper applies the logic of support escalation to a number of contemporary cases, before delving into the case of the Spanish Civil War and tracing the origin of Fascist Italy's increasing involvement via the analysis of primary documents. The paper further probes the generalizability of the argument with a large-N analysis of direct intervention in civil wars from 1975 to 2018.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-deciphering-international-punishment-literary-legal-and-political-insights-from 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Siddharth Mallavarapu

This paper makes a two-fold contribution: First, it historicizes international punishment through select colonial illustrations and acknowledges in broad brush strokes its myriad manifestations across time. Second, it suggests that punishment is an enduring trope of world politics evident in its continuing complicity with asymmetries of power manifest in a neo-colonial international present. To accomplish this objective, the chapter takes recourse to two distinct registers: first, select literary voices from the global south that chronicle these political moments with an unmistakable moral clarity; and second, a Third World Approaches to International Law (TWAIL) perspective on international punishments. These narratives also provide an opening to rethink and rehabilitate our current notions of political justice in international society.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-does-russian-antagonistic-strategic-narration-trigger-destabilising-psychologica 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Aiden Hoyle

The security threat posed by information influence is often attributed to its potential to trigger societal destabilisation. This is particularly problematic in the European setting where a number of societies are experiencing increased polarisation. An element of this destabilisation is psychological: strategic narratives influence how citizens of targeted societies comprehend and interpret the (international) political reality. If this is antagonistically skewed, it could lead to a myriad of destabilising psychological responses being elicited in these citizens. There is, however, little attention from psychological science as to if, and if so which, psychological effects of (antagonistic) strategic narratives are provoked. This study aims to make a first step in identifying causal links between Russian antagonistic strategic narratives targeting European states and societies and possible psychological responses. Drawing on extant qualitative analyses of Russian antagonistic strategic narratives about Sweden and the Netherlands, it tests a transdisciplinary model that links Russian state-sponsored narrative strategies to key types of perceived threat, and that subsequently predicts different cognitive and emotional responses. This study acts as a basis for future research analysing in more longitudinal research paradigms. Insights into causal links between particular Russian narratives and psychological responses in citizens can aid with, for example, more accurate measurement of the impact of Russian information influence, better preparation of the society against this type of security threat, and better construction of possible counternarratives.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-if-you-can-t-beat-em-join-em-conceptualizing-non-state-armed-group-interaction 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Michel Wyss

Why do some non-state armed groups (NSAG) in multiparty civil wars form collaborative interactions with each other while others do not? This paper argues that to understand the conditions of such interactions, closer attention needs to be paid to the question of how such NSAGs interact with one another. Previous research, which focuses on either conflict or cooperation among NSAGs, typically treats these processes as separate and binary phenomena and thus offers only partial explanations. In contrast, the paper proposes a novel framework that conceptualizes NSAG interaction on a single continuum, drawing insights from various research clusters such as terrorist cooperation and state-militia relations. The paper distinguishes between three basic types: collaborative, competitive, and contentious interaction, all of which are dynamic and can evolve over time. Its findings indicate that contentious interactions are particularly prevalent among asymmetrically capable NSAGs. Using several case studies such as the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) or the relations between Hezbollah and the Lebanese Resistance Brigades, the paper argues that rather than collaborative interactions, many ostensible alliances between powerful non-state armed groups and smaller militant organizations should instead be considered specific types of proxy relations, namely non-state sponsorship. In doing so, the paper not only offers a more comprehensive account of how non-state armed groups interact with one another but also expands the scope of research into proxy relationships, which has typically been limited to state-centric approaches.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-norm-violations-and-punishment-beyond-the-nation-state-normative-orders-authorit 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Wolfgang Wagner

This paper provides a theoretical framework for the study of punishment beyond the nation-state. It maps the main debates on punishment in various disciplines, including sociology, criminology, psychology, political science/international relations, history, and international law. Furthermore, it introduces basic concepts such as punishment, revenge, retribution, and restorative justice, and outlines the main penal philosophies and approaches to punishment. Special attention is given to whether and how international security has thus far been addressed in the various disciplines. The paper highlights the value-added of studying international politics through an inter-disciplinary lens of punishment. This value-added is threefold: punitive practices in international society tell us about the international normative order, i.e. the core values and norms of international society; punitive practices tell us about the (shifting) power structures and (changing) sites of authority in international society; and the penal philosophies tell us about the potential for conflict and cooperation in international society.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-punishment-panopticum-and-the-contingency-of-legal-norms-a-legal-philosophical-p 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Cornelia Baciu

Presented at EISS 2022. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-russia-s-way-of-war-comparing-russian-strategy-and-operations-in-ukraine-and-syr 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Nicolò Fasola

Presented at EISS 2022. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-sanctions-and-the-authority-of-legitimate-punishment-in-international-politics 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Elin Hellquist

Much criticism of sanctions revolves around their lack of legitimacy as explicitly harm-oriented tools of external interference into the domestic affairs of states. Applying insights from legal theory and experimental psychology, this paper argues that the legitimacy of international actions principally depends on whom the sender is. The paper distinguishes three types of senders in the contemporary sanctions landscape: the United Nations as an embodiment of universally shared norms and values, individual states imposing foreign policy sanctions alone or in coalitions, and regional organisations acting against their own members in case of violated core community norms. Scrutinizing legal bases and political justifications for all three groups of senders, the paper finds that regional organisations have a unique chance to clear up sanctions' legitimacy deficit. First, their sanctions are constructed as in-group measures, which softens their association with external interference. Second, their sanctions follow from a mutual contract between the regional community and its individual members. Third, regional organisations prioritise solving acute normative crises over protracted symbolic posturing, and consequently combine punitive isolation with positive modes of engagement.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-the-adaptation-cascade-the-global-diffusion-of-all-female-military-units-in-mili 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Cristina Fontanelli

Presented at EISS 2022. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-the-logic-of-diaspora-sponsorship-to-rebel-organizations 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Sara Daub

While the last decades of intrastate conflicts have taught us the relevance of state sponsorship on rebel organizations, less is known about the influence of non-state actors. Case studies on the Kurdish or Tamil diaspora illustrate the importance of material and political sponsorship for rebel organizations but little is known beyond individual cases. In this paper, I examine in a global setting why diasporas support rebel groups. To understand the logic of diaspora support, I develop a new principal-agent model for diaspora support to a rebel group, with co-ethnicity as a key factor. I also review the formation and mobilization of diaspora as an external actor in civil wars. The starting point of the sequential game is the diaspora's decision to support a rebel group. The results show that kin support can be identified as a key determinant of external diaspora support of rebel groups in intrastate conflict. The paper contributes to the limited literature on diaspora support and offers further avenues for empirically testing the proposed mechanisms in the principal-agent model in a large-N framework. The findings have important implications for our understanding of the agency of non-state actors.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-the-uneasy-relation-of-proxy-war-and-states-interests-pursuing-strategic-opportu 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Natalia Tellidou

It is not surprising that legitimate third-party intervention occurs rarely. After the 2011 NATO-led military intervention in Libya, requiring the coordinated effort of three great powers to pass a once-in-a-decade UN Security Council Resolution to use all necessary measures, states searched for more tenable foreign policies. Sponsorship of warring actors in civil wars rose as the favoured foreign policy, simultaneously bearing less in political costs and more in opportunities to influence. With the state not having to participate as an active actor in the civil war and the political consequences of such a controversial policy for governments being significantly reduced, a way into interfering in the internal affairs of other states was found. Despite this turn in policymaking, studies of conflicts explain the recent trend that consistently reached a record high for the past four years on the principal explanation of third-party intervention: bilateral rivalry. Why do states intervene in civil wars if they have no rivals in the civil war? This paper looks at recent proxy wars, where both warring sides receive external support, and uses Comparative Case Analysis to examine the strategies that states employ. The results show that in many cases, states that intervene in civil wars and are rivals with other external actors tend to escalate their efforts to a military intervention. When states intervene in conflicts having other preferences, they tend to abandon their efforts to change the outcome. States use different strategies when engaging in proxy wars that connect with their policy priorities in the conflict. These priorities connect with rivalry but also with other preferences. The QCA confirms this argument and suggests alternative pathways to a proxy war.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-trade-offs-in-the-use-of-military-power-lessons-learned-from-french-military-ope 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Olivier Schmitt

Presented at EISS 2022. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2022-visualizing-american-military-interventions-abroad 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z 2022-06-30T12:00:00Z Hubert Zimmermann

Presented at EISS 2022. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2021-a-post-liberal-age-of-security-authoritarian-interventionism-in-the-middle-east 2021-09-03T12:00:00Z 2021-09-03T12:00:00Z Hanna Pfeifer

Presented at EISS 2021. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2021-france-and-the-united-states-interventionism-in-north-africa-and-in-the-middle-e 2021-09-03T12:00:00Z 2021-09-03T12:00:00Z Salomé Tulane

Presented at EISS 2021. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2021-the-dilemma-of-security-force-assistance-the-fight-against-boko-haram-military-a 2021-09-03T12:00:00Z 2021-09-03T12:00:00Z Kristen Harkness

Presented at EISS 2021. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2021-what-are-they-t-asked-to-do-introducing-the-peace-operations-mandates-pom-datase 2021-09-03T12:00:00Z 2021-09-03T12:00:00Z Evgenija Kroeker

Presented at EISS 2021. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2019-a-case-study-russia-s-special-operations-command-in-military-interventions 2019-06-13T12:00:00Z 2019-06-13T12:00:00Z Emmanuel Dreyfus Michael Gjerstad

Presented at EISS 2019. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2019-analyzing-the-individual-strategic-practices-of-deployed-officers-in-multilatera 2019-06-13T12:00:00Z 2019-06-13T12:00:00Z Jon Rahbek-Clemmensen Annemarie Peen Rodt Poucher

Presented at EISS 2019. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2019-converging-and-conflicting-dynamics-of-cooperation-european-security-efforts-in 2019-06-13T12:00:00Z 2019-06-13T12:00:00Z Silvia D'Amato

Presented at EISS 2019. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2019-reluctant-to-intervene-the-ambiguous-politics-of-peacekeeping-in-the-case-of-eme 2019-06-13T12:00:00Z 2019-06-13T12:00:00Z Nicole Jenne Rafael Duarte Villa

Presented at EISS 2019. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2018-brexit-and-the-future-of-european-military-coalitions 2018-06-15T12:00:00Z 2018-06-15T12:00:00Z Katharina Wolf

Presented at EISS 2018. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2018-can-and-want-but-how-russia-s-approaches-to-use-of-military-force-in-internation 2018-06-15T12:00:00Z 2018-06-15T12:00:00Z Katarzyna Zysk

Presented at EISS 2018. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2018-military-interventions-liberal-militarism-and-republican-restraints-on-power 2018-06-15T12:00:00Z 2018-06-15T12:00:00Z Kevin Blachford

Presented at EISS 2018. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2018-russia-s-military-intervention-in-georgia-ukraine-and-syria-an-analysis-of-russi 2018-06-15T12:00:00Z 2018-06-15T12:00:00Z Domitilla Sagramoso Simon Saradzhyan Nabi Abdullaev

Presented at EISS 2018. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2018-the-recurring-logic-of-french-military-interventions-in-africa-and-their-implica 2018-06-15T12:00:00Z 2018-06-15T12:00:00Z Nathaniel Powel

Presented at EISS 2018. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2017-barefoot-soldiers-and-skiing-nations-incoherence-coping-strategies-and-the-makin 2017-06-15T12:00:00Z 2017-06-15T12:00:00Z Dr. Chiara Ruffa Dr. Sebastiaan Rietjens

Presented at EISS 2017. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2017-do-you-hear-me-major-tom-media-narratives-and-contemporary-military-operations-t 2017-06-15T12:00:00Z 2017-06-15T12:00:00Z Dr. Fabrizio Coticchia Silvia D’Amato

Presented at EISS 2017. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2017-military-interventionism-and-the-responsibility-to-protect-the-crisis-in-syria 2017-06-15T12:00:00Z 2017-06-15T12:00:00Z Dr. Šárka Kolmašová

Presented at EISS 2017. No abstract on file yet.

https://eiss-europa.com/papers/2017-the-trouble-with-internationally-proclaimed-safe-areas 2017-06-15T12:00:00Z 2017-06-15T12:00:00Z Dr. Stefano Recchia

Presented at EISS 2017. No abstract on file yet.